to show of barack obama that we don't already know? seeing is believing. the three times the debates have changed the lead in a presidential race. each time it was about the words, but also that something else, something that told voters what they didn't know and all of a sudden mattered a lot. and finally, bad numbers. barack obama's ahead in nearly every national poll and battle ground state poll. but what do we really make of the crunchers who say mitt romney has just a 1-5 chance to win this election? hi, i'm chris mathews. welcome to the show. with us today, new york magazine's john, trish and kelly and the huffington post's d howard. with just over a month to go for mitt romney, given the polls, the debates may be it. it could change the narrative that has dogged him or cemented. romney has the same urgent must-do list that he at the republican convention. only now could be his last chance. today we're going to look at romney's career, back at his career, at some missteps in past debates and also at some gems from barack obama. first up, first on romney's must-do list, get likable.